Kickoff 2014

It’s kickoff night in the NFL, which means fantasy football season has been in full swing for about a month and a half already with commissioners putting together leagues and recruiting players.  As readers last season will know, I was out of the fantasy football game for a couple of years last year before I was sucked back in.  I was obviously pretty rusty and stuck to formulas that had won me championships 5-10 years ago, but the NFL is a different much more pass happy animal now.  As such, I’ve updated some of my strategies.

1) Wide Receivers are more reliable than Running Backs and while the WR pool is deep, it really pays off to pull out the biggest fish early.  RB scarcity still makes it essential to get one of the best in the first two rounds if you can, but avoid going running back – running back in the first two rounds unless you get a great value or there are other circumstances like a significant portion of the elite player pool being unavailable in a keeper league.

2) I’m sure you’ve read this elsewhere, but if you only need one QB or TE, unless you are able to get one in the top tier in a reasonable round, it pays to stock up on Running Backs and Wide Receivers instead and get your Quarterback and Tight End later on.  There are anywhere between 15-20 reliable quarterbacks for fantasy purposes this year and it’s completely up in the air which ones will outperform the others, so if you are in a 12-team league there are more than enough to go around.  Sit back and let everybody else reach on quarterback first and let them risk picking the wrong one and cherry pick what’s left for yourself after you’ve already given yourself a substantial advantage on the other positions in the early rounds.

3) As always, you should always save your kicker pick for the last pick.  This is even more true this year as if you drafted before a couple of days before the start of the season, odds are the kicker you drafted has either been suspended, lost his job or been traded to another team.  Kickers are arbitrary and unpredictable and before this year the argument against that notion was always look at Matt Prater, one of the strongest legs in the NFL on one of the best offenses in football and has been an elite kicker every season of his career.  But if you reached on Prater early this year, the jokes on you because he won’t be the Broncos starting kicker this weekend or any weekend for the first month and a half of the season due to a suspension.  Meanwhile, the guys like me who waited to draft a kicker in the last round could drop our last round choice and pick up the guy that will actually be kicking balls in Denver, Brandon McManus.

So, ideally after 5 rounds of drafting, unless you got a great value on Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Julius Thomas, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, or Drew Brees, you should have some combination of 2 or 3 Running Backs and 2 or 3 Wide Receivers.  Then, feel free to either get more RB/WR depth or if you feel comfortable with what you’ve got there, grab your QB and TE in the next rounds.  After all, in most cases it makes more sense to finish drafting your starting lineup before you start grabbing guys to stick on your bench.  It just depends on the health of the players you drafted early and or how much faith you have in them.

Here is how it turned out for me in my 8 leagues this year.

Let the Wookie Win – (The only league I was in this year – This is a keeper league and I had the first pick in the draft, so even though I traded a late pick for AJ Green, I didn’t put the keeper tag on him because he would have been my only keeper and having the first pick, it made more sense to throw him back and see if anybody better didn’t get kept.  Fortunately, the owners who had LeSean McCoy and Matt Forte last year each forgot to select their keepers and so those players dropped back into draft and were fair game.  Those of you who followed last year also know that I traded pieces of my team last year for draft picks and so I ended up with 9 picks in the first 6 rounds which I used all of on RB / WR depth and so I’m poised for a huge run because even if a few of those guys go down with injuries, I have more than enough top caliber players at the position to remain a contender.)

– Team Name – Kessel Runners

– QB – Tony Romo, Jay Cutler

– RB – LeSean McCoy, Zac Stacy, Ray Rice, Joique Bell, Devonta Freeman

– WR – Jordy Nelson, Larry Fitzgerald, Keenan Allen, Jeremy Maclin, Michael Floyd, Jordan Matthews

– TE – Kyle Rudolph

– DEF/ST – Rams

– K – Brandon McManus

Damn It, It’s Humid in Mordor – (This is a new keeper league started by me and my friend Rob.  It is a Superflex 1/2 Point PPR and the only non-standard league I am playing in this year.  Instead of splitting RB, WR and TE into different positions, we start one QB, one OP (Offensive Player aka Superflex – can play a second QB in this slot), and 6 FLEX (regular flex position).  In this instance, RBs were going off the board like it was a standard league, so I grabbed pretty much all WR because that’s where the most points to be had were pretty much every time my pick came up and given that WR are generally easier to keep healthy, for every running back that goes down with an injury, my chances of winning the championship in this league will go up.)

– Team Name – Moria Mighty Miners

– QB – Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer, Geno Smith, Derek Carr

– FLEX – Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, Cordarelle Patterson, Emmanuel Sanders, Kendall Wright, Darren Sproles, Brandin Cooks, Jordan Matthews, Dexter McCluster, Zach Ertz

– DEF / ST – Browns

– K – Brandon McManus

ESPN Public Leagues (There are two of these that I am involved in, both 10 team leagues.  I tried to get into some 12 team ESPN leagues, but could never get one off the ground as 10 teams is the norm and the wait was just substantially longer to get one of these drafts going.  The first one, there were some definite rubes in the league, taking non-elite QBs and TEs in the first round, thus allowing me to get a great deal of two top-tier RBs at the end of the first round, start of the second round turn.)

– Team Name – Columbia Colossus

– QB – Matthew Stafford

– RB – Marshawn Lynch, Eddie Lacy, Ray Rice, Lamar Miller, Andre Williams, Ahmad Bradshaw, Knile Davis

– WR – Jordy Nelson, Alshon Jeffery, Keenan Allen, Marques Colston, Danny Amendola

– TE – Jordan Cameron

– DEF / ST – Rams

– K – Dan Bailey

– Team Name – Missouri Showmen

– QB – Tony Romo

– RB – Doug Martin, Zac Stacy, CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Lamar Miller

– WR – Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Keenan Allen, Michael Floyd, Justin Hunter, Jordan Matthews

– TE – Jordan Cameron

– DEF / ST – Rams

– K – Robbie Gould

Yahoo Standard Leagues (Again, the standard is 10-team leagues here.  Unlike in ESPN leagues, there is no FLEX and instead you must start 2 RB and 3 WR.  Always know your leagues settings and change your strategy accordingly.  All of my team names on yahoo are inspired by The League on FXX.)

– Team Name – Password is Taco

– QB – Andrew Luck, Ryan Tannehill

– RB – Matt Forte, Frank Gore, Ben Tate, Steven Jackson

– WR – Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, Marques Colston, Julian Edelman, Sammy Watkins, Jordan Matthews

– TE – Julius Thomas

– DEF / ST – Broncos

– K – Matt Bryant

– Team Name – Yobogoya Deluxe

– QB – Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger

– RB – Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, CJ Spiller, Ben Tate

– WR – Julio Jones, Alshon Jeffery, Marques Colston, Julian Edelman, Reggie Wayne, Jordan Matthews

– TE – Julius Thomas

– DEF / ST – Buccaneers

– K – Robbie Gould

– Team Name – Chalupa Batman

– QB – Matthew Stafford

– RB – Montee Ball, Doug Martin, Reggie Bush, Ben Tate, Maurice Jones-Drew

– WR – Antonio Brown, Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace, Julian Edelman, Reggie Wayne, Anquan Boldin

– TE – Jimmy Graham

– DEF / ST – Rams

– K – Blair Walsh

– Team Name – Shiva Blasters

– QB – Tom Brady, Nick Foles

– RB – Adrian Peterson, Montee Ball, Ben Tate, Ray Rice, Fred Jackson

– WR – Alshon Jeffery, Andre Johnson, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Golden Tate

– TE – Martellus Bennett

– DEF / ST – Buccaneers

– K – Matt Bryant

 

As you can see, I’ve used a few different strategies, but there were a few players that I tended to gravitate too.  It’s a good idea to not put all your eggs in one basket because then if that basket breaks, it breaks on all of your fantasy teams.  However, for simplicity’s sake, don’t be afraid to take the same player in multiple different drafts.  It’ll make your cheering much less confusing on game day that way.  Happy viewing.  Don’t text and drive, but also don’t update your roster and drive.