Who’s Hot and Who’s Not – 05/26/15 Edition

Kicking off a new feature here at Your Fantasy Lifeline.  I will be looking at the hottest players in fantasy baseball and maybe uncover for you a few gems that you can pick up on your waiver wire.  As for Who’s Not, maybe you see somebody that you can buy in on at the bargain basement price or maybe you read this and decide maybe it’s time to throw back one of the guys you took a chance on that just isn’t getting it done right now.  However, keep them on your watch list if you do because you took a chance on that player for a reason and you never know when they might find their way from the Not column to the Hot column.

Who’s Hot

#1 – Pedro Alvarez – 1B, 3B – Pirates – Everybody knows about Pedro Alvarez’s power.  However, everybody also knows about his low batting average tendencies.  As a result, he is owned in only 61% of Yahoo leagues.  However, he has hit safely in 5 of the Pirates last 6 games with 3 HR and 6 RBI.  He also has 3 multi-hit games during that span and has an attractive .368 Batting Average in the past week.  That average is something he’s obviously proven that he’s not gonna maintain, but he’s a guy you can ride while he’s hot.

#2 – Nori Aoki – OF – Giants – At the start of the season, lots of experts thought Aoki would be struggling to get playing time in a crowded Giants OF.  However, as we close in on the end of May, he has made his way to the top of the Giants depth chart in LF and he’s coming off a 4-hit game yesterday against his former team, the Brewers, including a Home Run, 2 RBI, 2 Runs scored and a Stolen Base.  That’s what we call filling up the stat sheet.  Aoki is only owned in 41% of yahoo leagues and batted .455 this past week.  He’s also up to 11 Stolen Bases on the year and this time of year a lot of people start to realize that they need to find more Steals from somewhere to compete in their fantasy leagues.

#3 – Nick Hundley – C – Rockies – Having supplanted Wilin Rosario as the Rockies everyday catcher, Hundley now gets to enjoy a starting spot on a team that plays half their games in Coors Field.  If you are lacking a catcher or a backup catcher, Hundley would make an excellent pick-up for your squad.  He’s only owned in 29% of yahoo leagues.  He’s batting .308 for the season with 4 HR and 15 RBI.  What other catchers have put up better numbers than that to start the season?  There aren’t many that you can point to and those that you can like Buster Posey or Stephen Vogt are undoubtedly not available on your waiver wire.  Hundley probably is.  Pick him up if you need a Catcher.

Who’s Not

#1 – Jose Bautista – OF, 1B – Blue Jays – Under no circumstances should you be dropping Jose Bautista.  Let’s clarify that right now.  However, he is 1-for-15 in his last 5 games and has sat out the last two games after receiving a cortisone injection for his sore shoulder.  Shoulder soreness in his throwing arm has relegated him to DH-ing only and he’s been too sore of late to even do that.  If you have a viable alternative, you should strongly consider sitting him on the bench until he’s feeling better.  He can break lose at any time, so for me personally, I’m probably going to have him in my starting lineup on the leagues where I have him as long as he’s playing, but his .215 batting average for the season has been hard to take.  I’m guessing some of his owners might be getting sick of it and you can maybe convince them to take a trade and get Bautista on your squad for a bargain.

#2) – Robinson Cano – 2B – Mariners – Again, under no circumstances am I advocating dropping a proven fantasy baseball commodity like Robinson Cano, but 7 weeks into the season and he has only produced one Home Run and a .253 Batting Average on the season.  And for the last two weeks, that average has been down at the .208 mark and he hasn’t homered since April 14.  A large part of Cano’s value comes from being among the top two or three performers at his position for most of the past decade.  However, he is only the 38th ranked 2nd Base eligible player on yahoo thus far this season.

#3) – Stephen Strasburg – SP – Nationals – Strasburg has been a phenom since making his MLB debut back in 2010.  However, thus far in 2015, his ERA of 6.50 on the season is more than double that of his career ERA (Earned Run Average) mark with an ugly 1.69 WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched) to go along with it.  Again, do not drop Strasburg from your roster.  But also, weigh your options and consider not starting him every time he takes the mound until he turns things around.  We should all be confident that he will turn things around this year, but if you can sit him out, maybe do so for his next turn or two through the rotation and be patient.  I personally just executed a trade for Strasburg this weekend, so I obviously think he is a solid buy low candidate and will turn things around sooner than later, but we shall have to wait and see.

Catching Up (Consolation Playoff Push)

First off, allow me to apologize for not keeping up to date on the weekly recaps, but I felt that at that point in the season to do so would have been pretty repetitive every week.  However, we have reached that portion of the season where I am playing meaningful games again, even if they are only my opportunity to climb out of the cellar in the consolation playoffs and avoid losing the bottom rung game of the consolation ladder on the final week of the season (AKA the Toilet Bowl Game).

To briefly recap up to this point why I’m in jeopardy of playing in the toilet bowl next week – my top 3 draft picks, all running backs, got off to incredibly slow starts.  My fourth pick, Randall Cobb, broke his leg early in the season.  My strategy of waiting until the late rounds for a quarterback while adding depth at other positions did not pay off.  When I tried to alter that course by trading for a quarterback, I landed Robert Griffin III, who has run hot and cold all season long and that Redskins team supporting him ended up falling well, well below expectations and now he is benched for the last 3 games of the season.  Stevan Ridley, who at one point got to be very reliable, suddenly wasn’t and got himself benched.  And once my team ended up at 1-6, I began the process of rebuilding for next season at the price of futilely competing down the stretch this year.  If it does end up that I finish in last place, I am perfectly okay with that because I got paid handsomely for the pieces of my team that I sold off and I am in great position for next season.

Here is the outlook on the members of my team for the final two games of this fantasy season.

QB – Nick Foles, tremendous matchup this week in the dome at Minnesota against a very poor defense.  I think Foles has a very good chance to be the top point producer at quarterback this week anywhere in the NFL.  Against Chicago next week, Foles is a maybe play.  My backup option now that I’ve jettisoned RG3 (even in a keeper league, he’s definitely not worth using a pick in the first three rounds to retain) is Alex Smith, who gets to rough up the Raiders this week and then maybe earn a start over Foles on my team when he plays the Colts in week 16.

RB – Maurice Jones-Drew has easily been my most reliable guy at RB the past 4-5 weeks.  However, during his 103-yard rushing performance against Houston last week, he pulled his hamstring and has sat out of practice all week and is listed as doubtful.  The fact that he might not play on a week where he has an outstanding matchup against a Bills defense that has performed horrendously against the Falcons and Buccaneers the last two weeks is a real shame.  However, I picked up Jordan Todman to play in his place should he be declared inactive because my other options this week are CJ Spiller, Stevan Ridley and Ray Rice, none of whom I have any confidence in this week.  In fact, I have a lot of confidence that Ray Rice will do next to nothing against the Lions on Monday night.  Ridley isn’t really playable until Hobo Bill stops Belichicking Ridley owners and gives him back his lead back status and Ridley proves he can handle it without getting himself benched again.  Right now, if MJD is active, he plays and Spiller is my 2, simply because he’s the lesser of all the other evils and believe it or not, he has the best chance for success and the smallest chance of a major breakdown compared to Rice and Ridley this week, in my humble estimation.  However, next week Rice gets the Patriots, who have not been up to their usual levels on defense in past weeks, so maybe Rice could put together a big game next week, but this week he rides the bench for me.

Wide Receiver – My three healthy or semi-healthy options are Cecil Shorts, Julian Edelman and Da’Rick Rodgers, who broke out last week in a big way against the Bengals.  However, he’s still very unproven.  I also have Randall Cobb, if by some miracle he gets cleared to play in either of the next two weeks.  Shorts and Edelman are my two guys this week with Rodgers as play B if Shorts, who is listed as questionable, is declared inactive this weekend.  Or if by some miracle the Packers magically clear Cobb and put him on the field against the Cowboys, he may become a must play for me at my weakest position.

Tight End – Charles Clay has a very good game against the Steelers and a solid game against the Jets the week before that and he matches up against the Patriots this week, who have proven to be weak over the middle lately.  I am very excited about his prospects this week.  And due to some poor matchups and unreliability issues at running back and wide receiver, I will be starting two tight ends this week with Coby Fleener in the flex against the Texans, who have given up the tenth most points to tight ends over the course of the season and he continues to lead the team in targets in recent weeks despite Rodgers emergence last week.  I also have Dennis Pitta on my bench, who is potentially a great play next week when he also matches up against the Patriots.

Defense / Special Teams – Detroit Lions.  I picked up the Lions this week because they match up against Turnover Joe and the Ravens, whose offensive line sucks.  They can’t move the ball on the ground unless they’re matched up against horrible run defenses like the Bears or Dolphins (the two teams that Rice went over 20 points against this season).  Plus, Flacco throws more than his fair share of interceptions and when they get down to the red zone, it always seems like they’re having to settle for a field goal.  So, I figure they should be held to less than 20 points easily with a couple of interceptions and maybe Earnest Ross can return a kick for a Touchdown and boost their point total.  Plus, the Lions play a horrible Giants team next week.  I’m not scared to play them despite the Eagles having a huge game on the ground against them in the snow last week.  I think that was a huge outlier for a defense that has been tough on the run all year long.

Kicker – I already played Nick Novak this week against the Broncos and he got me a respectable 9 points.  Maybe I’ll stick with him next week against the Raiders or maybe I’ll find an option I like better.

So, here is how it shakes out.  I only need to win this week or next week and either win means I don’t finish in dead last.  A win this week would be preferable because it automatically moves me out of the toilet bowl game altogether and a win is definitely doable this week, though I am a little scared that my opponent has Russel Wilson, Marshawn Lynch AND the Seahawks defense, all against the New York Giants dumpster fire squadron.  A good sign is that he still has Tavon Austin in his lineup and he is very questionable this week, so it’s looking like a 0 in that spot for my opponent and your opponent putting up zeroes is never a bad thing.

*Fingers Crossed* for luck for my team this week and best of luck to all of you, whether your champions hopes are still alive or whether you’re trying to avoid finishing in the cellar like me.

Week 5 Recap – Canton Heroes vs. Narnia Creations

I played Peyton Manning this week and he beat me almost single-handedly.  It happens.  We move on to the next week.

I knew Peyton was going to be in trouble against Dallas and my own QB, Robert Griffin III was on a bye week, so I needed a QB who could deliver in a shootout.  I ended up choosing Brian Hoyer.  If he doesn’t tear his ACL because nobody in Cleveland could teach him how to slide properly, I probably come out of this week 2-3 and 1 game off the playoff pace instead of 1-4 and 2 games back.  That Bills defense is exactly as bad as I thought they were, as evidenced by the fact that they gave up a 37-point game to a team whose quarterback tore his ACL on his team’s second drive of the game.  However, had I stuck with Geno Smith or Ryan Tannehill, I still could have won this week.  That’s just the way this season has gone the first five weeks, even when I gauge the situation correctly, I still end up on the losing end.

I also played the wrong Tight End this week.  Sunday morning, I decided that if the Colts were going to beat the Seahawks like I thought they would, they were going to need a big game from Coby Fleener, so I started him over Charles Clay.  End result, 11.2 for Clay, 1.5 for Fleener.  Judgment – BAD move.  I should have just slept in instead of waking up early and deciding to make that one line-up change.  I lost by 7.4 points.  If Clay is in instead of Fleener, I win by 2.3.  But those kind of what ifs, I don’t like to fall back on because the other guy always has guys on the bench that scored better than the guys that he played also, so if you get into that what if game, it only causes you more headaches.  The best advice I can give any of you and take myself is to not think that way.  Don’t dwell on it and move on to making your team the best it can be for the next week.

Speaking of which, my team is stacked full of great matchups this week.  ESPN projects my total at 113 points, but that could end up being very very light if Ray Rice and the Ravens run the ball like they did last week.  And they are playing Green Bay, so that’s not that much of a stretch so long as they don’t get bombed early by Rogers & Co.  They learned from the game against the Bills that no matter what the score is, throwing the ball 50 times and running it 9 times is never going to win you a game no matter how bad the other team is.  If the Ravens had committed themselves to giving the ball to Ray Rice against Buffalo, even when they were down 2 TDs early, they could have probably salvaged a win.  (I mean Bilal Powell did run for 120 yards against the Bills, they stink at defending the run.)  But instead, the Ravens played into their hands and lost by a field goal.  Lesson learned – Ray Rice got 27 carries against the Dolphins in Week 5 and 2 TDs.  Expect more of the same moving forward, my fellow Ray Rice owners because Mr. Harbaugh is not a stupid man.  He must have had a massive cerebral flatulation Week 4, but that isn’t going to happen again.

As for my team, look at what some of my key players have coming up.

QB – Robert Griffin III vs. Dallas, Chicago, Denver and San Diego the next 4 weeks.  The Bears defense is far from what it once was (as the Lions and Steelers both proved recently) and the rest of those teams have been terrible against the pass this year.  Sure, the Broncos will still get some interceptions and usually salvage a positive fantasy score (and usually put up double digits going into the 4th quarter until garbage time TDs drag them back down to the 9-10 point range for the week – I would know since they are my defense, though this week they just flat out sucked, Peyton not only killed the Dallas defense, he killed his own defense as well as they struggled to keep up with a pass happy Cowboy attack.)  But, back to RGIII, the only bad week he should have left on his schedule is Week 12 against San Fransisco (maybe Week 14 against KC).  Plus, he has Atlanta and the Cowboys again Weeks 15 and 16, which in this league are the last two weeks of the playoffs.

RB – Ray Rice vs. Green Bay and Pittsburgh the next two weeks, DeAngelo Williams against the Vikings and the Rams, MJD against the Broncos and Chargers.  All 3 of those guys returned to at least decent form this week and Ray Rice put my team on his back and would have carried us to victory if not for pesky Peyton and the game where nobody played defense.

WR – Randall Cobb takes on Baltimore (the team that gave up 7 TDs to Peyton) and Cleveland and has a pretty easy schedule against the NFC East and the rest of the NFC North the rest of the way.  DeSean Jackson of course gets to play everybody from the NFC East again and although he gets stranded on Revis Island this week, he’s got Dallas, Cleveland, Oakland and Green Bay coming up.  Greg Jennings and Cecil Shorts are both good plays this week against Carolina and Denver respectively, but they after that Jennings gets the Giants and his old team the Packers while Shorts gets San Diego next week (he plays the 49ers the week after that, so he’ll probably be on the bench that week although he gets lots of balls thrown to him regardless because the Jaguars are always throwing the ball because they’re always behind.)

My Broncos Defense gets to pick on Jacksonville this week.  They are projected at 9 points and while Shorts and Blackman will probably score high, the rest of the Jaguars (including MJD) probably won’t because Henne is going to throw interceptions gallore and MJD probably won’t get a lot of carries because the Jags will be down 3 scores by the end of the first quarter probably.

Here are the roster updates.  Brian Hoyer is gone because he’s out for the year and even if he wasn’t, he was just a one time only play while RGIII was on his bye.  Sebastian Janikowski is also gone, not through any fault of his own, but because Blair Walsh of the Vikings was sitting there and he’s averaging double digit points per week while kicking indoors for a team that has a very very strong running game and he already had his bye week.  You can’t do much better than that.  I also picked up Jonathan Stewart a week early since he is eligible to come back next week against the Rams (not that he will for sure), but since I have DeAngelo and have not been able to rely on MJD and Ridley continually, another option at RB was welcome over adding more WR depth like Terrance Williams of the Cowboys or Rueben Randle of the Giants who were my next two choices.

Updated Canton Heroes roster

QB – Robert Griffin III (my only QB from here on out barring injury or a very stupid dropped QB by my counterparts)

RB – Ray Rice, DeAngelo Williams, Maurice Jones-Drew, Stevan Ridley, Bernard Pierce, Jonathan Stewart

WR – Randall Cobb, DeSean Jackson, Greg Jennings, Cecil Shorts, Eddie Royal, Percy Harvin (IR)

TE – Coby Fleener, Charles Clay (Bye)

D/ST – Broncos

K- Blair Walsh

Even though I’m 1-4, I don’t feel like it this week.  This team is capable of keeping up with Rob’s 5-0 Alderaan Players (a name I gave him BTW) for the rest of the way so long as my Running Backs (Ray Rice in particular) don’t go back to putting up 2-3 points per week.  With the matchups my guys have going forward, we are still very much a threat.  The hard times are OVER.  Everybody else better beware.

Week 5 Box Score

Canton Heroes

– QB – Brian Hoyer – 2.1

– RB – Ray Rice – 20.2

– RB – Maurice Jones-Drew – 8.6

– WR – Randall Cobb – 10.7

– WR – DeSean Jackson – 19.2

– TE – Coby Fleener – 1.5

– Flex – DeAngelo Williams – 6.9

– D/ST – Broncos – -2

– K – Sebastian Janikowski – 12

Narnia Creations – 86.6

– QB – Peyton Manning – 35.2

– RB – Arian Foster – 11.8

– RB – Ronnie “Weaksauce McFumbles” Hillman – 5.9

– WR – Torrey Smith – 12.1

– WR – Andre Johnston – 3.9

– TE – Scott Chandler – 4.9

– Flex – Sidney Rice – 0.8

– D/ST – Ravens – 8

– K – Nick Novak – 4