Working out the Kinks (Salary Cap Stud)

Looking back, I can see that this season in fantasy football was about just what the title of this post says – Working out the Kinks.  Or better yet, scrubbing off the rust.  After setting out the last two years of Fantasy Football to better enjoy the game as a whole, I returned this year and did not perform at nearly the same level I was used to in the past.  Now, some of that may be that the only league I played in was a keeper league in which I inherited a roster that didn’t have a lot of appeal to me from somebody else that exited the league.  Some of it may have been caused by some slight micromanaging on my part.  And some of it may have been that I just didn’t trust my gut on players I drafted long enough after some of them got off to a very disappointing start while I kept my faith in my early running back picks and did not see that faith rewarded.

All in all, I think by the end of the year, I had a much better team put together and as it turns out in this particular league, I played well enough to beat just under half of the playoff teams on any given week, but only well enough to beat perhaps one of the consolation ladder teams on any given week. Consolation Teams averaged about 10 points more per game than playoff teams in this league and some of the playoff teams laid some really stinky eggs.  My final two consolation playoff opponents outscored the league champions Semifinal and Championship Round opponents by 80 points – that’s 40 points per game more that my opponents on the bottom rung of the consolation ladder were posting than teams that were in the Semifinals and the Championship game. And having sold off a few important pieces of my team to rebuild for next year, there was just no way for me to compete with that.  However, I am much happier with the picks and potential keepers that I traded for than I would be had I managed to avoid finishing in last place in the consolation playoffs.

Meanwhile, since Week 12, I’ve been playing the Floating Salary Cap game on ESPN and have been very good at it thus far.  In just 5 weeks, I’ve amassed 662 points with my salary cap squad (that’s 132.4 points / week) and almost 30 points per week above the average player.

Here are a few tips for any fellow Salary Cap Players out there.

1) Don’t buy in on any Chiefs this week against San Diego – Even though the Chiefs had one of their biggest offensive games of the season against San Diego in Week 12, this game is meaningless to the Chiefs.  Neither a win or a loss can effect their playoff positioning and starters and backups will both be worked into the mix in that game.  I don’t think you can trust their defense in a meaningless game and if you’ve been riding Jamaal Charles for the last few weeks, it is time to cash out on him and get somebody that is going to be seeing a full workload because Knile Davis is likely to see many more carries than Charles this week.  Davis might be a good cheap option if you want to go that route.  Same situation with Chase Daniel and Alex Smith, though I wouldn’t advocate picking up Daniel at all.  The only Chief that it seems safe to play this week would be Ryan Succop.

2) In Foles we trust – Nick Foles has been the #2 quarterback in all of fantasy football since Week 9 and he’s still a cheaper buy that Tony Romo, Matt Stafford, Andy Dalton and a whole slew of other quarterbacks who have disappointed lately, including Robert Griffin III who has been benched for the last two weeks.  He is a must play.

3) Green Akers? – David Akers has been one of the most disappointing kickers of late.  Thusly, he is the cheapest kicker available.  However, he gets to kick indoors this week at the Metrodome against a lousy Vikings defense.  And while the Lions have nothing to play for and might just phone this game in, kickers can’t afford to phone it in or they get replaced at the drop of the hat, so look for Akers to be sharp with whatever opportunities he gets and this late in the season, having your kicker not be effected by the weather because he’s playing in a dome is a big plus.  So, if you can use the money to drop your kicker’s price to pick up Akers to get an upgrade you are confident in at another position, then you should strongly consider making that move this week.

Catching Up (Consolation Playoff Push)

First off, allow me to apologize for not keeping up to date on the weekly recaps, but I felt that at that point in the season to do so would have been pretty repetitive every week.  However, we have reached that portion of the season where I am playing meaningful games again, even if they are only my opportunity to climb out of the cellar in the consolation playoffs and avoid losing the bottom rung game of the consolation ladder on the final week of the season (AKA the Toilet Bowl Game).

To briefly recap up to this point why I’m in jeopardy of playing in the toilet bowl next week – my top 3 draft picks, all running backs, got off to incredibly slow starts.  My fourth pick, Randall Cobb, broke his leg early in the season.  My strategy of waiting until the late rounds for a quarterback while adding depth at other positions did not pay off.  When I tried to alter that course by trading for a quarterback, I landed Robert Griffin III, who has run hot and cold all season long and that Redskins team supporting him ended up falling well, well below expectations and now he is benched for the last 3 games of the season.  Stevan Ridley, who at one point got to be very reliable, suddenly wasn’t and got himself benched.  And once my team ended up at 1-6, I began the process of rebuilding for next season at the price of futilely competing down the stretch this year.  If it does end up that I finish in last place, I am perfectly okay with that because I got paid handsomely for the pieces of my team that I sold off and I am in great position for next season.

Here is the outlook on the members of my team for the final two games of this fantasy season.

QB – Nick Foles, tremendous matchup this week in the dome at Minnesota against a very poor defense.  I think Foles has a very good chance to be the top point producer at quarterback this week anywhere in the NFL.  Against Chicago next week, Foles is a maybe play.  My backup option now that I’ve jettisoned RG3 (even in a keeper league, he’s definitely not worth using a pick in the first three rounds to retain) is Alex Smith, who gets to rough up the Raiders this week and then maybe earn a start over Foles on my team when he plays the Colts in week 16.

RB – Maurice Jones-Drew has easily been my most reliable guy at RB the past 4-5 weeks.  However, during his 103-yard rushing performance against Houston last week, he pulled his hamstring and has sat out of practice all week and is listed as doubtful.  The fact that he might not play on a week where he has an outstanding matchup against a Bills defense that has performed horrendously against the Falcons and Buccaneers the last two weeks is a real shame.  However, I picked up Jordan Todman to play in his place should he be declared inactive because my other options this week are CJ Spiller, Stevan Ridley and Ray Rice, none of whom I have any confidence in this week.  In fact, I have a lot of confidence that Ray Rice will do next to nothing against the Lions on Monday night.  Ridley isn’t really playable until Hobo Bill stops Belichicking Ridley owners and gives him back his lead back status and Ridley proves he can handle it without getting himself benched again.  Right now, if MJD is active, he plays and Spiller is my 2, simply because he’s the lesser of all the other evils and believe it or not, he has the best chance for success and the smallest chance of a major breakdown compared to Rice and Ridley this week, in my humble estimation.  However, next week Rice gets the Patriots, who have not been up to their usual levels on defense in past weeks, so maybe Rice could put together a big game next week, but this week he rides the bench for me.

Wide Receiver – My three healthy or semi-healthy options are Cecil Shorts, Julian Edelman and Da’Rick Rodgers, who broke out last week in a big way against the Bengals.  However, he’s still very unproven.  I also have Randall Cobb, if by some miracle he gets cleared to play in either of the next two weeks.  Shorts and Edelman are my two guys this week with Rodgers as play B if Shorts, who is listed as questionable, is declared inactive this weekend.  Or if by some miracle the Packers magically clear Cobb and put him on the field against the Cowboys, he may become a must play for me at my weakest position.

Tight End – Charles Clay has a very good game against the Steelers and a solid game against the Jets the week before that and he matches up against the Patriots this week, who have proven to be weak over the middle lately.  I am very excited about his prospects this week.  And due to some poor matchups and unreliability issues at running back and wide receiver, I will be starting two tight ends this week with Coby Fleener in the flex against the Texans, who have given up the tenth most points to tight ends over the course of the season and he continues to lead the team in targets in recent weeks despite Rodgers emergence last week.  I also have Dennis Pitta on my bench, who is potentially a great play next week when he also matches up against the Patriots.

Defense / Special Teams – Detroit Lions.  I picked up the Lions this week because they match up against Turnover Joe and the Ravens, whose offensive line sucks.  They can’t move the ball on the ground unless they’re matched up against horrible run defenses like the Bears or Dolphins (the two teams that Rice went over 20 points against this season).  Plus, Flacco throws more than his fair share of interceptions and when they get down to the red zone, it always seems like they’re having to settle for a field goal.  So, I figure they should be held to less than 20 points easily with a couple of interceptions and maybe Earnest Ross can return a kick for a Touchdown and boost their point total.  Plus, the Lions play a horrible Giants team next week.  I’m not scared to play them despite the Eagles having a huge game on the ground against them in the snow last week.  I think that was a huge outlier for a defense that has been tough on the run all year long.

Kicker – I already played Nick Novak this week against the Broncos and he got me a respectable 9 points.  Maybe I’ll stick with him next week against the Raiders or maybe I’ll find an option I like better.

So, here is how it shakes out.  I only need to win this week or next week and either win means I don’t finish in dead last.  A win this week would be preferable because it automatically moves me out of the toilet bowl game altogether and a win is definitely doable this week, though I am a little scared that my opponent has Russel Wilson, Marshawn Lynch AND the Seahawks defense, all against the New York Giants dumpster fire squadron.  A good sign is that he still has Tavon Austin in his lineup and he is very questionable this week, so it’s looking like a 0 in that spot for my opponent and your opponent putting up zeroes is never a bad thing.

*Fingers Crossed* for luck for my team this week and best of luck to all of you, whether your champions hopes are still alive or whether you’re trying to avoid finishing in the cellar like me.

Week 10 Recap – Rebuilding, Retooling, Reloading for 2014

Not that it’s going to surprise anybody with me clearly building a team for next year, but I lost again to drop to 2-8.  I’m now 3 games off the playoff race with just 3 weeks left in the regular season, but I’ve given up on the playoff race for almost a month now since I traded away DeSean Jackson and DeAngelo Williams for picks.  And since then, Jonathan Stewart has returned to the Carolina backfield, turning them into a three-headed monster with Stewart, Williams and Tolbert and most experts want no part of any of them now that they have to split carries among three different backs and with Tolbert getting the goal line work, but the fewest carries most likely going forward.  Whereas Jackson would easily still be starting for me every week, he wouldn’t have made a difference in any of the losses I’ve suffered since trading him, so I don’t feel bad about auctioning him off at all, especially since that 4th round pick I got in exchange for him is going to be a big help.  And the 6th round pick I got for Williams feels like a steal now that he’s trapped in a 3-way time share and has just 2 touchdowns all year.

And now working for next year has taken on more than just trading away valuable player for draft picks, but I’m acquiring potentially phenomenal keeper options for next year. Just barely getting a trade processed before game time, I traded away a 9th round pick for C.J. Spiller and I think I got a real bargain here.  While Spiller is having ankle issues and trapped in a time-share situation with Fred Jackson, he would presumably be 100% by the start of next season and Fred Jackson would be 33, so odds are real good that Spiller takes a very firm control of that backfield next year, if not by the end of this year once Jackson’s batteries run out down the stretch.

Disaster struck in the Monday night game as Mike James fractured his ankle and has been placed on injured reserve along with teammate Doug Martin.  As a result, I dropped him for his replacement Brian Leonard and am currently trading Leonard for injured reserver Arian Foster (pending league approval) in the hopes that Foster will recover from off-season back surgery and return to his elite status next year.  With Ray Rice’s star fading a bit, Maurice Jones-Drew trapped behind a horrid Jaguars offensive line and Ridley getting Belichecked up until a couple of weeks ago, it feels great to have all 5 of these guys fantasy fates in my hands for next season (I can keep up to 3 of them and wait and choose which 3 part of the way through the preseason) along with a great amount of high draft picks.  The future looks pretty bright right about now for this team.

Roster Update

QB – Robert Griffin III, Nick Foles

RB – Ray Rice, Stevan Ridley, Maurice Jones-Drew, CJ Spiller, Arian Foster (pending review)

WR – Randall Cobb, Percy Harvin, Marvin Jones, Cecil Shorts, Aaron Dobson, Mario Manningham

TE – Coby Fleener, Charles Clay

D/ST – Houston Texans

K – Graham Gano

Updated Draft Pick Info

Keeper Rounds – 3 picks

4th Round – 2 picks

5th Round – 1 pick

6th Round – 3 picks

7th Round – 1 pick

8th Round – 1 pick

10th Round – 1 pick

11th Round – 1 pick

12th Round – 2 picks

15th Round – 1 pick

I won’t bore you with further details of my team’s poor performance this week, but you can check it out for yourself here if you like.  http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/boxscorequick?leagueId=27211&teamId=9&scoringPeriodId=10&seasonId=2013&view=scoringperiod&version=quick